Sea level rise
Description
Estimates future increases in sea level projected to occur due to increasing global mean temperature (GMT).
Input variables
- Increase in global mean temperature (GMT) above base year (from Climate module)
Key assumptions
This module uses a linear algorithm developed by Rahmstorf, based on extrapolating from increases in temperature and sea level that occurred between 1881 and 2001.
This approach was chosen because, according to Rahmstorf the "capability for calculating future sea-level changes...with present physics based models is very limited."
The key parameter values for the module are:
- Baseline annual increase in sea level of 3.4 millimeters for each degree Celsius by which GMT in that year exceeds pre-industrial levels (C-LEARN uses this baseline parameter in all of its outputs).
- User-specified parameter that enables adjustment of baseline annual increase to take into account faster or slower ice sheet melt (this parameter is adjustable in C-ROADS but not in C-LEARN).
- Parameter value of 1 doubles annual sea level increase to 6.8 mm per degree Celsius increase in GMT .
- Parameter value of -1 reduces annual sea level increase to 0 mm.
Output variables
- Cumulative increase in sea level above baseline year
Recent developments
For a summary of the most recent research, co-authored by the scientist whose work served as the basis for the C-LEARN sea level module, see Stefan Rahmstorf and Martin Vermeer, Ups and downs of sea level projections, Real Climate, 31 August 2009.
