EMF27 model runs

EMF27 model runs #

You can try out the page that provides access to the EMF27 model runs to see how it works. 

Overview #

In the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum's EMF27 exercise, eighteen teams from around the world, including many of the leading integrated assessment model (IAM) groups in the world, created model runs that examined, at a global scale, interactions between:

• varying climate change policy regimes,
• varying levels of availability for advanced energy technologies, including both
  • future pace of advances in energy efficiency
  • future advances (or constraints) for four key low carbon energy technologies
    • wind and solar,
    • biofuels,
    • nuclear,
    • carbon capture and storage or CCS. 

The EMF27 study served as an important input to Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

EMF27 was facilitated by the forming of the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) in 2008, many of whose members serve on the Climate CoLab’s Model Steering Committee. 

How Climate CoLab members can access EMF27 model runs  #

When Climate CoLab members create proposals in the Global plan contest, the Model tab allows them to access the EMF27 model runs. 

The model tab allows proposal authors to select their preferred policy,level of energy efficiency, and mix low carbon energy technologies.

Authors can then click on the "See model runs" button to view graphs that project values through the year 2100 for a group of important environmental and economic variables: 

• Population 
• Fossil Fuel Energy
• No Carbon Energy
• CO2 emissions from energy sector/industry
• CO2 emissions
• Atmospheric concentration of CO2
• Increase in mean global temperature
• Average global carbon price
• Consumption vs. no policy/constained technology baseline

The assumptions underlying the model runs are laid out in detail in the model tab. For further detail, refer to the references below.

References #

Overview of EMF27
Kriegler, Elmar, et al. 2014. The role of technology for achieving climate policy objectives: overview of the EMF 27 study on global technology and climate policy strategies. Climatic Change, Volume 123 (3-4): 353-367. 

Policy in EMF27
Blanford, Geoffrey J., Elmar Kriegler, and Massimo Tavoni. 2014. Harmonization vs. fragmentation: overview of climate policy scenarios in EMF27. Climatic Change, 123 (3-4): 383-396. 

Energy technologies in EMF27
Krey, Volker, Gunnar Luderer, Leon Clarke, and Elmar Kriegler. 2014. Getting from here to there – energy technology transformation pathways in the EMF27 scenarios. Climatic Change, 123 (3-4): 369-382.

Use of EMF27 (and other model intercomparison studies) in IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Working Group III, Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change, Chapter 6. Assessing Transformation Pathways. 

On the rationale for using changes in consumption to assess the costs of climate change policies
Paltsev, Sergey and Pantelis Capros. 2013. Cost Concepts for Climate Change Mitigation. Climate Change Economics 4 (Supplement 1). 
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