Adquire a deep knowledge of spatio-temporal rainfalls distribution in Namibia to optimize water resources and set droughts emergency plans.
As a dry country, Namibia has the duty to optimize the natural water resources, both in the short and long term.
A first stage to achieve this optimization is to acquire a deep knowledge and understanding of the distribution of rain events both in space and time. Using a historical database with rain data recorded by several meteorological stations the rainfall events will be analyzed from different statistical approaches. Spatial statistics and geo-statistical techniques will be used to define indicators, general patterns and change in the behavior of the occurrence and intensity of the rain events. The objective is to create a model to predict and detect patterns in the distribution of rains and document the used techniques in the form of a manual, easy to understand and use for different management bodies, which can be a reference for planning the coming years as well as drought emergency situations. Namibia is a huge country but with very low population density. Due this fact the possibility to assist isolated communities is limited. Water is a first priority in the country for animals and humans. With the development of predictive models several actions can be focused on redirection and prioritization of resources. Approximate information on the availability of water by zones and time periods could help the decision making regarding the installation of portable water tanks, distribution of water purification mechanisms or planning of crops and livestock, etc.
This project is presented as a theoretical and exploratory action, but with a vision of becoming a future in a management tool that can be integrated into real actions on the field.
What actions do you propose?
The project is divided in three main actions: research and data analysis, model development and applications.
1. A complete statistical analysis will be performed and documented through a collection of articles and chapters. The analysis of rain distribution will be approached from different perspectives and using different statistical techniques.
a) Point process analysis for historical data analysis in Windhoek: Analysis of probability of dry periods and rainy periods within temporal intervals.
b) Geostatistical analysis of the spatio-temporal evolution of droughts in Namibia: multivariate Kriging and interpolation methods.
c) Detection of changes in the tendency of rain distribution by effects of climate evolution. Change point analysis of historical data.
d) Analysis of climate indicators to estimate and predict future behaviors in rain events.
2. Development of a model/ application to easy make predictions in the Rain distribution and support decision making processes. Programming as a Python or R script and possibility to be implemented in Open Source GIS software.
3. According to the results a new doucment will be created as a master plan to implement real situations responses against emergencies related to water shortages. This plan is based on the created model and it makes use of the NAMrain management tool.
Who will take these actions?
Internally as a Research Group at the Namibian University of Science and Technology within the department of Spatial Sciences and Technology
Where will these actions be taken?
What are other key benefits?
Distribution of information related to rain distribution.
General information to authorities and individuals.
Generation of a clean and well maintained database of meteorological stations in Namibia.
What are the proposal’s costs?
No costs. Part of research workload within NUST.
Action 1. Statistical analysis (1 year)
Action 2. Development of a software (1 year)
Action 3. Complete documentation and distribution of the information (1 year)
Atlas of Namibia. A portrait of the land and its People. John Mendelsohn, Alice Jarvis, Carole Roberts and Tony Robertson.