This seed proposal is based on Ethiopia's Climate-Resilient Green Economy - Green economy strategy and was prepared by a member of the Climate CoLab staff. We invite other CoLab members to link to this proposal or to use it as a starting point for creating new proposals of their own. The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia has not reviewed nor endorsed this proposal.
“Under the BAU scenario, emissions from forestry in Ethiopia will increase from 53 Mt CO2e in 2010 to 88 Mt CO2e in 2030.” “The main drivers of GHG emissions as well as their assumed impacts are mainly the increase in cropland and the increase in the cutting of fuelwood to meet the needs of a growing population [and logging].”
This proposal outlines nine levers that collectively can reach significant CO2e reductions.
What actions do you propose?
“Thanks to levers such as afforestation and reforestation, the Forestry sector boasts an abatement potential even higher than the projected increase in emissions under the BAU scenario. In total, nine levers have been identified with an abatement potential of up to 131 Mt CO2e. These levers are clustered into three groups:
- Reduced deforestation. This includes lowering the pressure that the need for agricultural land exerts on existing forests. These levers range from agricultural intensification and preparation of new land by means of small-scale irrigation to medium- and large-scale irrigation schemes. In total, they account for an abatement potential of nearly 38 Mt CO2e. Since these [three] levers are mainly related to agricultural practices, a more detailed discussion can be found in the [section on Soil].
- Reduced forest degradation. This focuses mainly on reducing the demand for fuelwood through dissemination of a wide range of efficient cooking and baking technologies. With a total abatement potential of around 50 Mt CO2e, this is the largest set of levers identified across all sectors.
4. Fuelwood-efficient stoves
5. Electric stoves
6. Biogas stoves
7. LPG stoves
- Increased sequestration. This contains mainly large- and small-scale afforestation/ reforestation/area closures and forest management of woodlands and forests. Covering an area of 7 million ha in total (by 2030), this set of levers promises an abatement potential of 42 Mt CO2e. Today, several projects to increase the forest cover by afforestation or reforestation are already ongoing. In addition to afforestation/reforestation, sustainable agro-forestry and protected-area management can provide additional levers to increase sequestration.”
“Taken together, the suggested forestry abatement levers not only appear to be without major barriers to implementation, but also seem to have strong socio-economic benefits beyond GHG abatement. The initiatives discussed should therefore not only be a prime focus of the CRGE strategy, but also amongst the first initiatives for which implementation can start quickly and achieve fast success.”
"As a range of programmes is already in progress in the Forestry sector, the scaleup initiatives should be able to build on a solid experience base.”
Who will take these actions?
Where will these actions be taken?
Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia
How much will emissions be reduced or sequestered vs. business as usual levels?
"In total, nine levers have been identified with an abatement potential of up to 131 Mt CO2e."
What are other key benefits?
What are the proposal’s costs?
“The forestry initiatives ... will require a total expenditure of nearly USD 7.9 billion in the long run (i.e., up to 2030). Out of this total amount, about USD 3.4 billion is capital expenditure and USD 4.5 billion is operating and programme expenditure. Around USD 1.2 billion of the expenditure will be necessary in the short term, i.e., up to 2015."
“...On the other hand, since most of the initiatives, particularly the scale-up of fuelefficient and fuel-shift stoves, entail high savings for the targeted population, the savings and/or additional income is expected to overcompensate this expenditure from a societal perspective. More precisely, this means that more than USD 1.4 billion savings/additional income can be generated in the short run up to 2015 and nearly USD 16 billion of savings/additional income can be achieved by 2030."
“Most of the levers aiming at reducing forest degradation and reducing deforestation by shifting into more efficient stove technologies and intensified, i.e., higher-yield, agriculture have a negative societal cost: The benefits (e.g., reduced costs for purchasing or collecting fuelwood) surpass the cost of implementing and operating these technologies.”
“All levers aiming at increasing sequestration have a positive cost. For some levers, the costs are exceptionally high due to the investments needed for setting them up.”
- “Climate finance can play an important contributing role if the abatement potential is appropriately monetised, e.g., in a REDD+ arrangement.”
“On the basis of the abatement potential and feasibility assessment, the Forestry STC has selected three priority initiatives for particular attention and immediate implementation efforts. These initiatives are the scale-up of fuelwood-efficient stoves, afforestation/reforestation, and forest management (Figure 47). Significant scale-up of these initiatives is envisaged to start already at the beginning of 2012.”
“In addition, the scale-up programmes for other stoves will also start in the course of 2012. An exception is the programme for the scale-up of LPG stoves, which is envisaged to start only in 2013/14 in order to explore the availability of sufficient amounts of LPG within the country and thereby ideally avoid an increase of costly fuel imports. The initiatives summarised under agricultural intensification as well as large-, medium- and small-scale irrigation, that are described in more detail in the Soil chapter, also have planned starting dates in 2012. It is important to mention that these dates mark the start of the implementation, which for some initiatives is staged across several years (e.g., afforestation/ reforestation is staged across all 20 years up to 2030). The estimated project time includes some required preparatory work (e.g., development of investment plans), and is subject to approval by the respective authorities and the availability of funding. Hence, the full impact of the initiatives only occurs later in most cases.”
- The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia's Climate-Resilient Green Economy - Green economy strategy: http://www.epa.gov.et/Download/Climate/Ethiopai's%20Vision%20for%20a%20Climate%20Resilient%20Green%20Economy.pdf