Baja Sustainable Development by GWEN
Unenforced US immigration law results in uncontrolled immigration and contributes to climate change. We have a practical solution for both.
The GWEN Project seeks to address the wicked problems of adequate water quality and supply, energy reliability and availability, global climate change, the threat of terrorism to world peace, further development and control of nuclear fission and fusion technologies for peaceful energy-producing purposes, population growth, world hunger, and immigration reform. Each individual issue impacts the others. The entire social mess amounts to a wicked problem that isn’t being properly addressed at the U.S. local, state or federal level; nor is the U.N. an effective central authority capable of delivering a robust and permanent solution.
No recent public policy deliberations were found in California, Colorado, or elsewhere that have seriously considered the pros and cons of having:
· the availability of a sea-based fleet of desalination vessels and tankers capable of delivering large quantities of high quality fresh water,
· disciplined planning approach to the water-energy nexus that could be implemented as part of a planned community, or
· a fresh water futures market
These circumstances have resulted in the conclusion that initiating the GWEN Project, while seeking funding and collaboration from strategic external sources such as the MIT Climate CoLab provides the means for developing an integrated strategy for approaching the global water energy nexus and adapting to climate change. The fact that violations of the 1848 Treaty of Guadalupe-Hidalgo are occurring on a daily basis provides another potential source of funding for the development of a truly sustainable community with an overall population of 100 million in what is currently an arid and somewhat inhospitable environment. One of our objectives would be to achieve the lowest greenhouse gas emissions rate per capita of any industrialized community on the globe.
Our vision goes way beyond (1000X) Disney's Experimental Prototype Community of Tomorrow (EPCOT Center), so our team is in the process of recruiting a future U.S. President with real estate development experience to execute our vision of having a favorable impact on climate change.
Which proposals are included in your plan and how do they fit together?
Our plan comprehensively addresses all six sectors (energy supply, transportation, industry, buildings, land use and waste management, and adaptation). The GWEN transformational systems engineering workshop will encompass all impacts in the system of systems that must be managed in order to have a favorable impact on climate change -- particular those that impact water and energy.
Our plan includes both the physical actions (such as reduction in energy consumption) and social actions (such as new policies, changes in economic incentives, or evolution of behavioral norms) that will be needed for those physical actions to occur. This is why immigration policy is a central part of our plan because supply and demand is driven by population size as well as technology and conservation. Reducing the US population to 300 million instead of allowing it to grow to 400 million has a dramatic impact on the level of greenhouse gases produced by the US. No deportations of immigrants (either legal or illegal) would be necessary if the economic incentives are moved to an area that is not entirely encumbered by excessive restrictions but is motivated instead to achieve sustainability goals.
One assumption that must be true for all of the proposed actions to be compatible and possible at the same time is that the US has a President that doesn't eliminate opportunities for greenhouse gas reductions by pursuing unrestricted US immigration policies that bring more people into a high greenhouse gas producing lifestyle. Our process is designed to address water and energy production and consumption while simultaneously addressing immigration, terrorism, poverty, and all six sectors of the Climate CoLab process.
The INCOSE Colorado Front Range (CFR Executive Committee is hosting a 3-day workshop on the use of Transformational Systems Engineering (TSE) techniques to address one of the most important issues of our time, the Global Energy Water Nexus (GWEN). This workshop is a follow up to the March 2015 TSE Tutorial held at the Colorado School of Mines.
The complex interdependencies between the generation and consumption of our energy and water resources display all the characteristics of a “wicked problem”. With current trends toward more water-intensive energy (e.g. biofuels, unconventional oil and gas production, and increasing water consumption for thermoelectric power) and more energy-intensive water (e.g. desalination, water treatment, or deeper ground water pumping and production), classical systems engineering techniques for implementing rigorous, disciplined, interdependent solutions starts to break down. Our challenge, from a Systems Engineering perspective, is to apply TSE tools and best practices to GWEN.
In a very basic way, Transformational Thinking is the foundation of TSE and it has special significance on the analytical side of engineering. Transformational Thinking empowers engineers to work “outside the box.” Overall, TSE has two aspects: Analysis and Synthesis. Transformational Thinking is essential for the analysis of problems whose cause is “outside the box.” It’s particularly important for wicked problems such as GWEN. Transformational Thinking is also essential to the application of TSE practices for the synthesis aspect of engineering.
We will be approaching this problem in two stages: Analysis and Synthesis. In this first workshop, we will be focusing on the Analysis of the GWEN issues. Our purpose is to 1) identify the root cause of the GWEN problem(s) and related causal factors and 2) produce a design brief for the Synthesis stage where we will be applying TSE practices such as Agile SE, SE for Complex Systems, Human / Systems Interaction, Model-Based SE, Systems of Systems Engineering, and Design Thinking. Note that the synthesis stage will be addressed subsequent to this first workshop, either in GWEN engineering project meetings or a subsequent workshop.
$100.00 by Friday 11 September; $75.00 by Friday 21 August 2015; and $50.00 for Colorado School of Mines Faculty, Students and Alumni. The cost for this event covers light refreshments and printed workshop materials. Lunch will be the responsibility of each participant.
· Introduction to Transformational Thinking: How to get a paradigm shift when you need one.
o Systems and their discontents
§ Patterns and Paradigms
§ Exercise: Discussion of challenges. What are that factors that make GWEN development a difficult or “Wicked Problem.”
o Design Thinking as a TSE Practice
§ Exercise: Empathizing with the GWEN Stakeholders
o Five Aggregates Analysis:
§ Motivation for using five aggregates analysis
§ Principles of five aggregates analysis
o Exercise: A preliminary Five Aggregates Analysis of GWEN issues
· Going Deeper with Transformational Analysis: Application of Data Driven Root Cause Analysis and Five Aggregates Analysis)
o Design Thinking: Defining Problem Statements
§ Exercise: Developing a set of alternative GWEN problem statements
o Data Driven Root Cause Analysis (DDRCA) Establishing the locus of a problem
§ Exercise: Identifying the fundamental GWEN variables
§ Exercise: Organizing key data to map the locus of the GWEN Problem(s)
o Looking for Key Patterns in Data
§ Exercise: Identifying Key GWEN patterns
o Patterns in Causality and Creativity
§ Exercise: Identifying causal mechanisms underlying GWEN phenomena
o Validation Challenges and Techniques
§ Exercise: Validation of GWEN causal mechanisms
· Design Thinking and Patterns in Creativity
o Exercise: GWEN connectivity, emergent opportunities, collaboration
· Strategies for working inside and outside “The Box”
o Exercise: A Design Brief for GWEN
· The Path Forward for the GWEN Project: The Path of Transformation
The essence of this workshop is the presentation of a number of techniques that can augment traditional systems engineering processes. The Global Water Energy Nexus (GWEN) lends itself to the application of these techniques. The GWEN Project is an initiative that addresses some of the most critical challenges of our time. The goal of this workshop is to apply TSE tools and best practices to GWEN
Scott Workinger, Ph.D., Stanford Engineering has 35 years experience leading people who create innovative, practical solutions to business problems and field working systems in a broad spectrum of industries. He leads the Systems Engineering Transformation Caucus. He teaches technical leadership, systems architecture, test engineering, problem analysis, systems engineering, design thinking, systems thinking, system of systems thinking and transformational thinking. The students who attend his courses come from a broad cross section of backgrounds and include experienced leaders and technologists from such diverse backgrounds as the US Navy, Missile Defense Agency (MDA), National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), pharmaceutical companies, aircraft manufacturers, and engineering consulting firms. Scott has a passion for empowering his students through research, application, and teaching. His teaching style emphasizes coaching students in practical problem solving exercises, dialog, and class discussion.
Registration and Important Details
The Workshop is open to INCOSE members and non-members alike. The cost is $100 for both INCOSE members and non members, and $50 for Colorado School of Mines Faculty, Students and Alumni. There is a discounted early registration fee of $75.00 (subsidized by our local chapter). Register in advance using the attached registration form, with payment by cash or check no later than 21 August 2015 to:
TSE /GWEN Workshop
417 E. Kiowa St, Apt 706
Colorado Springs, CO 80903-8406
Participants will receive a receipt by e-mail. A hard copy of workshop notes are included in the registration fee.
Light refreshments are provided. Participants are encouraged to have breakfast before arrival and to make their own arrangements for lunch.
Any request for a full refund may be submitted by Monday 21 September 2015 — four calendar days before the workshop begins. Pro-rated refunds may be granted after that date but the amount will be based on a case-by-case review of extenuating circumstances.
Signing in and networking will be accomplished each day of the workshop between 0800 and 0830.
Location: Arthur Lakes Library, Colorado School of Mines, 1500 Illinois Street, Golden, CO 80401 (library.mines.edu)
Driving directions from Denver International Airport and/or from I-25:
· Take I-70 westbound, exit Highway 58 to Golden.
· Exit Washington Street and turn left to enter downtown Golden.
· To get to Arthur Lakes Library, continue on Washington Street, Turn right on 14th Street until it ends at Illinois Street.
Colorado School of Mines Parking Map: http://www.mines.edu/MapsDirectionsParkingInfo_1
All of the following proposals (and more) are compatible with and included in our Baja Sustainable Development Plan:
We have not identified any specific proposal yet that would be incompatible with our plan.
We have identified a mandate for all US employers to use eVerify and suffer severe consequences for hiring illegal labor in the US as being required for our plan to succeed.
Explanation of the emissions scenario calculated in the Impact tab
We ran out of time for more than just a discussion with impact experts regarding our plan. Suffice it to say that the US rank near the top of the list of impact per capita whereas most countries where US immigrants originate rank much lower. The immigrants come to the US in search of economic opportunities. A proposal has been made by at least one US presidential candidate to force Mexico to pay for a fence on the southern US border because Mexico is responsible for the influx of illegal aliens across that border. Our proposal is to offer economic sanctions for immigrants (both legal and illegal) as well as any unemployed or underemployed Americans to migrate willingly and eagerly to the most exciting community development project on planet earth where per capita environmental impact could be targeted at a rate of less than 50 percent of the current US rate. Generally speaking, nearly all of the proposals received by the MIT Climate CoLab could be implemented under our plan. Some will succeed in the real world and others might not.
What are the plan’s key benefits?
Our plan is a win-win situation. Obviously, some serious negotiations will be necessary with Mexico, but historically the Mexican government has previously offered to sell the Baja peninsula to the US and this might be the best option given their current violator status of the 1848 Treaty of Guadalupe-Hidalgo. The US can offer the Baja Sustainable Development effort as the path to US citizenship, thereby taking amnesty, birthright citizenship, and a host of other immigration issues off of the table.
What are the plan’s costs?
Our plan's costs are essentially zero in that the focus of our plan is a change in priorities and in the allocation of funds. Recently, a US presidential candidate stated that the US needs a safety net for those in temporary poverty -- not a hammock. Just a the Jode family left Oklahoma for California during the dust bowl days of the Great Depression, our plan offers both economic and environmental incentives to consider working and retiring in a community that features abundant amounts of oceanfront property, water and energy at affordable prices.
What are the key challenges to enacting this plan?
The primary obstacle that will be addressed during our transformational systems engineering workshop is the need for transformational thinking on the part of political and business leaders as well as voters and workers. Clearly a deal must be struck -- one way or another -- between the US and Mexico to end the current destructive legal and illegal immigration process. There are many visions and many definitions of immigration reform. Our vision may be discussed before the next US presidential election or it may just be implemented after the 2016 elections. There is no doubt that leadership and the art of the deal will be challenges that must be met in order to enact our Baja Sustainable Development Plan.
2015 09 25-27 INCOSE Transformational SE Workshop
2015 11 30 AIAA EnergyTech http://www.energytech2015.com/
2016 US Presidential Election
2048 Baja Sustainable Development Goals Met
One of the objective of the upcoming INCOSE workshop during 25-27 September 2015 at the Colorado School of Mines is to identify the required key initiatives for all GWEN objectives (environmental and otherwise) including an appropriate response to the current drought.
An exhaustive archive of relevant scientific papers, policy studies, journalists' reports and other sources is provided in our sub-proposals and the workshop proceedings.