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Revisions from IEA scenario

According to the IPCC, to stay below 450 ppm, GHG emissions need to drop dramatically by 2050: 50% from current levels worldwide, 75% from current levels in developed countries. This is hard to model, so the assumption is that developed countries drop by 75% and developing countries increase by half of the IEA scenario.

IEA scenario description

This is one of two scenarios presented in the World Energy Outlook 2008, an annual study prepared by the International Energy Agency (IEA)

IEA's members are the countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which includes all of the world's industrial economies.

The 450 ppm scenario is designed to limit the average global temperature increase to 2 degrees Celsius, the limit recommended in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

In the 450 ppm scenario, global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions peak in 2020 and begin to decline through 2030. By 2030 emissions in the OECD countries decline 40% from 2005 levels, while emissions growth in developing countries through 2030 is limited to 15 to 20% above 2005 levels.

The 450 ppm scenario also envisions aggressive action to reduce deforestation and increase CO2 sequestration through the planting of new trees.

Regional and national cap-and-trade systems play an important role in the 450 ppm scenario. The scenario forecasts a CO2 price of $180 per metric ton in 2030.

The IEA projects that through 2030, the 450 ppm scenario will require more than $9 trillion in investments above the leves forecasted in the baseline scenario, an amount equal to 0.55% of global GDP over the period. This additional investment will be offset by $5.8 trillion in fuel savings through 2030, an amount equal to 0.34% of global GDP.