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This is one of two scenarios presented in the World Energy Outlook 2008, an annual study prepared by the International Energy Agency (IEA). 

 

Regional emission trajectories in this plan are: 

  • - Emissions in the OECD countries decline 40% from 2005 levels by 2030.
  • - Emissions growth in developing countries through 2030 is limited to 15-20% above 2005 levels.
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This plan also involves aggressive action to reduce deforestation and increase CO2 sequestration through the planting of new trees.

 

 

 This is one of two scenarios presented in the World Energy Outlook 2008, an annual study prepared by the International Energy Agency (IEA) 

 

IEA's members are the countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) , which includes all of the world's industrial economies.

 

The 450 ppm scenario is designed to limit the average global temperature increase to 2 degrees Celsius, the limit recommended in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) .

 

In the 450 ppm scenario global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions peak in 2020 and begin to decline through 2030.

 

Regional emission trajectories are:

·  Emissions in the OECD countries decline 40% from 2005 levels by 2030.

·  Emissions growth in developing countries through 2030 is limited to 15 to 20% above 2005 levels.

 

The 450 ppm scenario also envisions aggressive action to reduce deforestation and increase CO2 sequestration through the planting of new trees.

 

Other elements of the plan include:

·  Regional and national cap-and-trade systems playing an important role.

·  CO2 price of $180 per metric ton in 2030.

 

IEA estimates that through 2030, the plan will cost less than 1% of global GDP:

·  More than $9 trillion in investments will be required above the levels forecasted in the baseline scenario, an amount equal to 0.55% of global GDP over the period.

·  This additional investment will be offset by $5.8 trillion in fuel savings through 2030, an amount equal to 0.34% of global GDP.